Peak Everything?

I've just read an interesting article about to come out in American Scientist. Revisiting the limits to growth after peak oil links oil to the cost of other resources from metals and minerals through to food. The authors point out that:

• commodity prices have fallen despite the fact that they have become increasingly difficult to produce because oil prices dropped. This drop hid the effect of the increased energy needed for production.
• For every calorie of food produced in the world, 10 calories of energy to into producing, processing and transporting that food.
• The maximum energy return on investment for oil was 100:1 in 1930 but between 20:1 and 30:1 in 2005. That is the amount of energy balance of energy out to energy in has dropped significantly and continues to do so.
• The "limits to growth" model developed in the 60s and 70s is actually predicting very closely the changes that we are currently seeing.
  
• Oil effectively currently provides each person in Europe and the States with "on average some 30 to 60 or more "energy slaves," machines to "hew their wood and haul their water," each slave being equal to a strong, fit person.
• Our new sources of green energy do not provide very high return on energy investment and certainly will not be able to replace oil any time soon as a source of cheap energy.
• Few scientists are working on the issues associated with human population approaching the limits to growth since there has been no funding for that work. Over the last 20-30 years. this means that there are no obvious intellectual leaders debating these issues today and governments do not appear to be taking them seriously in any way, perhaps as a result of this.

Credit crunches and Ecological limits

A new issue of Resurgence is out. I was particularly interested to read an article by Andrew Simms called Planet Crunch where he puts together a range of issues from the links between our attitudes to credit and money and how that links to resource use. I was also interested to read his account of the way in which oil tanker drivers were able to bring the UK to its knees because of the "just in time" nature of oil distribution through the UK. This didn't just affect people's capacity to travel - it had a major effect on food distribution to the point where Simms suggests the UK was "9 meals away from anarchy". This of course links up social unrest with food distribution and in the longer term with access to a resources that people need to live their lives. Given the fact that the world human population is growing and that food reserves are at their lowest for a long time food security is becoming something to think about for all of us - rather than only those living in poverty. As Jared Diamond put it in Collapse being rich only gives you the capacity to die last when the ecosystem on which you rely collapses.

Not a happy thought but one that might be worth pondering in terms of what action is needed as we head into a world of diminishing resources.